Bitcoin commentary
In-depth insights into the bitcoin market. Darren Chu, Founder of Tradable Patterns, shares his technical analysis on market movements, as well as exchange updates.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Nears Upper End of 2 Month Consolidation As Election Nears
October 20
  • Bitcoin (BTC/USD) approached the upper part of its two month consolidation range as the U.S. approaches the November 3 election.
  • BTC/USD attempted to extend its ascending wedge (on the daily and weekly chart), and appeared to be readying to retest the August high.
  • The weekly RSI, stochastics and MACD were oversold.
  • Institutional interest in BTC continued to grow; Stone Ridge Asset Management revealed a 10k BTC holding through its crypto subsidiary, New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG).
  • Stone Ridge also declared BTC its primary treasury reserve asset, adding momentum to institutional adoption of BTC in wake of Square Inc.’s announcement in early October, in which Square Inc. outlined a purchase of 4,709 BTC for USD 50M (representing ~1% of its treasury). 
  • Exchange coins, as well as Ether and Bitcoin, came under pressure last week due to the news that an OKEx employee, who held the exchange’s keys, was taken into custody, and the CFTC's early October charges against the three founders of BitMEX involving service to U.S. customers.
  • DeFi represents ~ 4-5% of entire crypto market and about a third of Ethereum's market cap.
  • Decentralized exchange volumes (of USD 23.5B in September) made up 5% of centralized exchange volumes. 
  • BTC/USD remained highly correlated to the S&P 500. Should the stock market respond to news surrounding fiscal stimulus package negotiations or a potentially contested outcome to the U.S. presidential election, BTC/USD prices could be affected.
  • Although the ICE U.S. Dollar Index® broke below a key uptrend support line as seen in the monthly chart, we will monitor BTC/USD's correlation to the U.S. dollar in coming months.
Weekly BTC Index

Daily Bakkt BTC Future

Weekly Correlation BTC Index vs. S&P 500 - set to 20 period

Weekly Correlation BTC Index vs. Gold Spot - set to 20 period

Weekly Correlation BTC Index vs. USDX - set to 20 period

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