Bitcoin commentary
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In-depth insights into the bitcoin market. Darren Chu, Founder of Tradable Patterns, shares his technical analysis on market movements, as well as exchange updates.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Tests 12K - Just Below 2019 High
August 12
  • Bitcoin (BTC/USD) edged higher this past week, and appears to be trying to resume its rally towards the June 2019 high. 
  • Significantly, once BTC/USD breaks above the June 2019 high, the next upside target, defined by the upper end of the January 2018 range, could be reached in the month or so after.
  • The weekly and daily stochastics are tiring from overbought levels, weighing on the still upsloping weekly MACD. 
  • Institutional interest in blockchain and its myriad of applications continues to grow, with Goldman Sachs announcing a new global head of digital assets. The low hanging fruit will be to leverage blockchain to bring efficiencies to the repo, mortgage, and credit markets. Goldman Sachs will also explore its own coin.
  • Demand for BTC has also accelerated as capital flocks to Grayscale's GBTC Bitcoin Trust, attracting over USD 1B in inflows in the 12 months including Q1. Q1 saw inflows of half a billion USD, with half a billion arriving in the week ending Jul 27. Grayscale has been purchasing BTC at a record pace (with 19k coins accumulated in the 1st month after the halving).
  • BTC/USD's correlation with gold has been trending up, both behaving bullishly in response to the global fiat money supply expansion. This relationship will continue to fluctuate due to regulatory pressures, competitive threats from CBDCs, and a greater perception of BTC/USD being a speculative market.
  • With the US Dollar Index breaking below a key uptrend support line as seen in its weekly chart (to the right), the question is whether the BTCUSD's correlation to the US dollar grows more negative in coming months.
Monthly BTC Index

Weekly BTC Index

Daily Bakkt BTC Future

Weekly Correlation BTC Index vs. S&P 500 - set to 20 period

Weekly Correlation BTC Index vs. Gold Spot - set to 20 period

Weekly Correlation BTC Index vs. USDX - set to 20 period

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